One month to go: General Election 2017 Polls

Polling Station

It’s now one month until Great Britain will go to the polling stations and vote in the 2017 general election.

Article written by Oliver Sirrell

Britain Elects’ poll of polls had The Conservatives on 42.4 points and Labour on 26.1 points when the snap election was called by Theresa May on April 18.

The Tories strong lead over Labour has increased by 18.5 points as Theresa May’s ‘strong and stable leadership’ mantra has given her party a boost of 4 points to 46.5.

Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour have also increased their share but by a smaller margin of 1.9 points since April 18, taking them to 27.9 overall.

In the two and a half weeks proceeding May’s snap election announcement, the Liberal Democrats have traded third for fourth, swapping places with UKIP.

Tim Farron’s Liberal Democrats have only seen their share increase by 0.1 point but Paul Nuttall’s UKIP have lost 4.4 points, most of which has seemingly transferred to The Conservatives.

The Greens have also had a lacklustre start, moving from 3.9 points to only 2.8 points.

In Scotland, the most recent YouGov poll gives Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP a lead of 13 points over Ruth Davidson’s Conservatives, who poll at 41 points and 28 points respectively.

Kezia Dugdale’s Labour and Willie Rennie’s Lib Dems poll at 18 points and 7 points respectively.

In Wales, The Conservatives have a substantial lead over their rivals, polling at 40 points to Labour’s 30 points.

However the polls have been wrong before. In 2015, pollsters had Labour and The Conservatives tied at an average of 34 points each before Britain voted, yet David Cameron’s Tories won a majority, eventually finishing with 37.5 points compared to Labour’s 30.5.

Therefore there can be big variations in polling from different polling companies; ORB, for example, have the net Conservative lead at 15 points, whereas TNS are currently reporting a 24 point lead for Theresa May’s Tories.

The local elections on Thursday 4th May were perhaps a better measure of how the country will vote, with the general election firmly in the mind of many.

The Conservatives gained 11 councils while Labour lost 7. This translated to a loss of 382 council seats for Labour, with the Tories obtaining 563.